The timing couldn’t be more perfect for an April snow storm in southern Michigan. Supreme Ann Arbor, Detroit

All weather data continues to show significant snow accumulation in southern Michigan. The timing is just right for a period of heavy, wet snow.

For a snow storm in April, it usually has to happen at night. That’s exactly when a snow storm becomes more likely on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.

The two models we’re looking at still vary by about 25 miles and a few inches. Both models have moved the heaviest snow 25 miles southeast in the past 24 hours. There is often a trend for the snow to shift north 25 miles as the storm approaches. I assume that will happen.

It all boils down to snow piling up in the southeast third of Lower Michigan on Tuesday night through Wednesday.

The European model has shifted slightly to the southeast in the past 24 hours. The European is an inch or two heavier than the US model.

Here’s the radar forecast, which shows most of the precipitation on Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning – the easiest time to have snow.

Radar forecast from Tuesday 2 p.m. to Wednesday 8 p.m.

The ground is warm so it melts when the snow falls. At the moment it looks like the snow is falling heavy enough to override the rate of melt on the ground. Here are the two snowfall forecasts that share the common theme of the heaviest snow over southeast Michigan.

Euro snow

Total snowfall forecast from the US GFS model.

The European model says there is two to five inches of snow from Grand Rapids to Saginaw and southeast of that line.

gfs

Snowfall forecast from the US model called GFS.

The US model above is a little further southeast with the 2-inch line. I would still call it two to five inches of snow based on the US model.

The Detroit and Ann Arbor areas have the highest chances of four or five inches of snow. Jackson, Lansing, and Flint are likely a bit out of the heaviest snow. Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, Saginaw, and Bay City will have some clustering, but probably only an inch or two.

Tuesday evenings and Wednesday mornings can be snow-covered streets when the snow falls so hard that it piles up before it melts.

I think we’re all going to call a two to five inch blizzard this time of year.

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