Possible April snow storm for southern Michigan, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Ann Arbor, and more

I just have something we’d better keep updated – a possible blizzard.

A cold front will move south through Lower Michigan on Tuesday. Then a low pressure wave will ride along the cold front, with the storm center expected to pass south of Michigan.

This means that the southern half, or rather the southeast half, is in steady precipitation on the cold side of the storm. In other words, heavy snowfall (for April) is quite possible in part of southern Michigan.

This is the first contribution to the coming storm. We will bring you up to date. I now know that everyone wants to know how much snow is in your house. Remember, the snow is three and a half days from start. This is just a guide to show you that we’d better be thinking about snow.

Good enough to try and cover for my you-know-what. Here is the snow information.

Below is what is usually the best model radar forecast.

Radar forecast from the European model for Tuesday at 2 p.m. to Thursday at 2 a.m.

The heaviest snow is expected to hit Grand Rapids into Saginaw and face south.

The US model is below. It has recently been improved and is not a bad model. It has the same history as the European one, only a little further south and a few inches lighter.

gfs radar

The radar forecast of the US model called GFS for Tuesday from Tuesday to Wednesday at 8:00 a.m.

When we get a blizzard, it’s Tuesday night through Wednesday.

I know – now you want to know how much.

The first picture below is from the European model. It’s been pretty accurate lately. This snow forecast below does not take into account the melting of soil temperatures in the 1940s. So I would reduce each point set by an inch or two.

Euro snow

Total snowfall forecast from the European Model Ensemble Mode.

The US model called the GFS has the same idea but has shifted about 50 miles to the southeast.

gfs snow

Total snowfall forecast from the US GFS model.

The trend was for the JRC to move in the direction of the European model forecast. What we saw many times this winter were the two models that met in the middle, with just a slight leaning towards European.

I think every road gives southern Michigan snow and a streak of heavy snow somewhere.

I would call that two to five inches of snow in the heaviest swath. Right now, I’d most likely put these cities in the hardest range: Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, Lansing, Jackson, Flint, Ann Arbor, and Detroit. Grand Rapids, Saginaw, and Bay City would only be on the northern edge of an inch of snow.

Please watch out for updates. I know that the location of the heavy snow needs to be adjusted.

And don’t worry – it will melt in a few days even if it’s colder than normal after the snow.

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