With the conclusion of the United Nations Climate Change conference (COP 28) last week, negotiators brokered a deal calling for a global expansion of renewable energy, improved energy efficiency and a transition away from fossil fuels.
As member nations debated whether to agree to a phase out of fossil fuels, a phase down — which would potentially allow the continued use of fossil fuels — or excluding fossil fuels from the language entirely, the almost 200 countries in attendance ultimately agreed on “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems” and “tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.”
Whitmer signs climate change legislation setting 100% clean energy standard for Michigan by 2040
While the deal has been praised as “historic” by some leaders — including President Joe Biden — critics have said the deal is weak and contains a number of loopholes in pushing for more clean energy worldwide.
Earlier this year, Michigan took its own steps to increase the buildout of clean energy sources, bringing ideas outlined in Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s MI Healthy Climate Plan into state law.
With the passage of two bill packages, the state has set targets for 100% clean energy sources by 2040, strengthened energy waste reduction goals and allowed energy companies to pursue permits for clean energy projects through the state’s energy regulator, the Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC), where the decision was previously exclusively made by localities.
“[Whitmer] basically put down what I think it’s fair to say is one of the most ambitious and comprehensive climate plans in the entire United States of America,” said Michael Dorsey, chair of the Rob & Melani Walton Sustainability Solutions Service at Arizona State University, and a member of the Michigan Environmental Council’s board of directors.
“It’s absolutely significant, and it’s going to help put Michigan on a track to reducing emissions. And really importantly, not just not just cleaning up the pollution and waste but it’s going to put Michigan on course to deliver clean energy at scale. That’s precisely the nature of the conversation here at the 28th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,” Dorsey told the Advance during his time at the conference.
While the newly signed laws were welcomed by many environmental groups, some environmental justice advocates have argued the provisions don’t go far enough.
The initial version of the bill introduced in the Senate removed biomass, municipal solid waste, landfill gas and fuel manufactured from waste from the state’s definition of renewable energy sources. However, that standard was pared back in later versions.
The final definition of renewable energy included biomass, landfill gas made from solid waste, gas from methane digesters using municipal sewage waste, food waste and animal manure, and energy-generating incinerators in operation before Jan. 1, 2023, in addition to allowing nuclear and natural gas with the use of 90% effective carbon capture technology to count toward the states 100% clean energy standard.
Ahead of the votes on the clean energy standard bill, SB 271, the Michigan Environmental Justice Coalition sent a letter to lawmakers asking them to vote against the policy, on the grounds that the energy sources which received a carveout in the bill would continue to harm air and water quality, continuing to harm low-income communities and communities of color who are already bearing the brunt of pollution.
The laws also drew the ire of Republicans who argued the packages would increase energy costs, decrease reliability and strip away local control, with some saying the state needs to leverage all of its energy resources moving into the future.
Associate Professor Doug Bessette | MSU photo
As governments and energy producers weigh their options on transitioning to more renewables, Doug Bessette, a Michigan State University professor who researches clean energy and energy transitions, said the discussion and deal at COP 28 provide a solid foundation for state and municipal governments to develop their own policies.
“I think one thing that COP does do — and we’ve seen this in previous agreements — is that it empowers municipalities and counties and businesses to take measures, take actions that may not necessarily be supported at the federal level, but do actually make a tangible difference,” Bessette said.
“I think it’s important for COP to agree on aggressive paths forward. I think that’s very important, even if the countries don’t necessarily agree to anything that’s legally binding,” Bessette said.
While Michigan’s largest energy providers have each set goals for achieving net zero emissions, Dorsey said neither company has demonstrated plans to reach 100% renewable energy that are based on 80 to 90% wind and solar.
“I dare either of them to put forth a serious fit for purpose plan that, you know, matches with the 2040 target, or is even more professionally aggressive, because they have the science and technology and the skills to do so,” Dorsey said.
While Consumers Energy has set 2040 as its target for achieving net-zero carbon emissions, its target energy capacity would be made up of 63% renewable sources and would still include 10% natural gas.
DTE has set a 2050 target to reach net-zero emissions. The company has projected its fuel mix by 2042 will consist of 62% renewables, 20% natural gas, 12% nuclear and 6% storage.
The first half of DTE’s plan to reduce emissions focuses on renewable energy and battery storage, while its long term strategy aims to incorporate emerging technologies including carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), which aims to capture CO2 from facilities burning fossil fuels, like coal or natural gas.
However, the real economics are that CCS won’t be at scale by 2040, Dorsey said.
“The real economics are that solar and wind are quite capable of being at scale a decade earlier,” Dorsey said.
Alongside calling for a transition away from fossil fuels, the deal at COP28 also calls for the acceleration of zero- and low-emission technologies, including carbon capture.
When discussing carbon capture it’s hard to decipher how many of the arguments are about recognizing the need for a baseload energy source for the next decade or two and working to mitigate emissions, versus political posturing in order to keep natural gas plants online, Bessette said.
“I know that carbon capture is also going to be extremely expensive, and hasn’t actually shown any ability to work commercially. And so I wonder how often this is just a bait and switch,” Bessette said.
Michael Dorsey, chair of the Rob & Melani Walton Sustainability Solutions Service at Arizona State University, and a member of the Michigan Environmental Council’s board of directors. | Courtesy of the Michigan Environmental Council
Delaying transitions to clean energy sources not only puts DTE’s employees at risk, but the state and its citizens Dorsey said, referencing the impacts of air pollution.
According to the World Health Organization, outdoor and household air pollution contribute to 7 million premature deaths annually.
“Go up in the Renaissance Center [in Detroit] with a pair of binoculars and look across the river. That landscape in Windsor is dotted with wind turbines from the river to Toronto,” Dorsey said. “As you drive up towards Saginaw and Flint, where it is rural, you don’t see that wind infrastructure built and it’s the same wind profile on the other side of the river. That is a categorical failure and a breach of leadership and a failure of leadership from the duopoly utilities in the state of Michigan.”
With the exception of the inflation resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and higher interest rates, Bessette predicts solar and wind will be cheaper than natural gas, creating a market-based incentive to build renewables.
The passage of House Bill 5120, which allows energy developers to pursue permitting for large scale projects through the Michigan Public Service Commission, has allowed developers to begin pursuing projects they might have otherwise been apprehensive about due to potential restrictions from localities, he said.
According to a report from the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School, there are 26 localities in the state that have blocked or restricted renewable energy development.
“I think there will be rapid solar development and increasingly we’ll see wind development and likely co-located wind and solar development,” Bessette said.
While wind and solar will likely reduce costs for consumers in the long term, oil and gas will likely become cheaper during the transition to renewables, creating a drag, Bessette said.
As far as the development of renewable energy, siting has proven the largest concern for building out renewable energy sources, rather than profit concerns, Bessette said, with developers facing concerns from community push back and changes to zoning ordinances.
Additionally, Bessette has not seen an increased acceptance of a transition to renewable sources.
“I think there’s an assumption that as the impacts from climate change become more tangible and we start to realize what a future with unmitigated climate change looks like, there’s this belief that people are going to become more willing to transition. And my suspicion is that is not the case,” Bessette said.
Transitioning to renewables will become more costly as the impacts of climate change become more tangible, in the face of billion-dollar disasters, and increased heating and cooling costs, Bessette said.
“My suspicion is that we will see more of this bunker mentality where not only individuals but communities will be less likely to transition because they will now be even more fearful of spending valuable resources on transition,” Bessette said.
Additionally, developing renewable energy jobs can carry benefits and tradeoffs.
Bessette said he has frequently argued that the jobs created by renewable energy development are overstated, with many of these jobs being filled by individuals who move with the projects being developed.
While jobs in renewable energy, battery and electric vehicle manufacturing are significant and pay well, communities have pushed back against these facilities.
Signs remained in July 2023 from an April 2023 anti-Gotion rally at a horse farm in Green Charter Township. | Anna Gustafson
“I think there are definitely job benefits that come with embracing the green energy economy and not trailing behind. I like that we’re being aggressive, both at the state level and at the municipal level in trying to attract these companies, but there are trade-offs that come along with it,” Bessette said.
“I am a believer in competitive advantage. So I’m a supporter of us trying to wrestle some of that green energy development here to the State of Michigan and not allowing it to go elsewhere. But then it gets a little bit messier when you start providing tax credits and subsidies and grants,” Bessette said.
Dorsey said the agreement to build out more renewables presents a multi-trillion dollar opportunity for Michigan and all other states.
One of the benefits of conferences like COP28 is that the world looks to the U.S., even when leadership is lackluster, Dorsey said.
The U.S. has a lot of respect banked up, so even when the country is lagging, people will still turn to the U.S. because we still lead on technology, Dorsey said.
This includes innovations, particularly in the digital space which is key for renewable generation and storage, Dorsey said, creating opportunities for Michigan businesses as well as companies in the Great Lakes states.
While it’s clear the globe is moving in the direction of clean energy, and failing to be first can cost more in the end, it’s important to be responsible and understanding of community concerns, and to spread the wealth, Bessette said.
“This transition is going to occur no matter what happens. And so yes, it would be great if they decided that we were going to aggressively phase out fossil fuels and do it within the next 10 years. That would be fantastic. But what does that actually look like at the local and state level,” Bessette said.
“There’s a significant trade-off between the speed by which you can develop these projects and the level of community participation and stakeholder engagement that comes along with it,” Besette said. “You can’t have both. You’re either going to develop projects quickly, or you’re going to invite communities in and give them a lot of influence and control over what the projects look like. It’s very difficult to do both.”
From a basic economic standpoint, utility scale renewable energy energy is more efficient and less costly, and will make more sense financially and technically as the projects are built out, Bessette said.
He also noted he would like to see more community benefit packages and more tangible compensation for communities hosting solar and wind energy included within HB 5120.
“I think the developers, frankly, are doing fine, especially if you argue, ‘Well, there’s a lot of financial uncertainty to building these projects. And so we have to allow for some wiggle room,’” Bessette said. “That’s one thing, but if we’re removing that uncertainty by making state zoning available then you should have more money to provide to the local community.”
Solar panel in Meridian Township | Susan J. Demas
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authored by Kyle Davidson
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